February 2025
As we kick start 2025, interest rates continue to influence the growth of both residential and commercial building activity.
Retail sales show positive growth starting the new year, along with an uptick in both new and used vehicle sales. However, tourism has slowed from December. With interest rates still elevated, the economy will face challenges in building activity. Inflation remains a concern, but optimism for growth remains reasonable across most economic sectors. We anticipate steady, moderate growth for Lubbock as we move further into 2025.
Retail sales in January 2025 experienced a significant rise of 20.57% compared to January 2024. Year-to-date sales for 2025 reached $20.34 million, reflecting a modest increase of $1.27 million, or 6.68%, compared to the same period in 2024. New vehicle sales in January 2025 reached 1,049 units, representing a 20.44% increase over January 2024. Similarly, used vehicle sales for the month totaled 1,687 units, marking an 11.28% growth compared to January 2024.
Tourism saw a sharp decline in January 2025, as hotel/motel tax collections dropped by 30.96%, or approximately $316,000, compared to January 2024. On the other hand, airline boardings in January 2025 rose by 8.48% compared to the same period last year.
The state employment numbers are always recalculated in February and will be published March 14th.
Residential building activity in January 2025 totaled $61.5 million, reflecting an increase of $23.9 million, or 64%, compared to January 2024. During the same month, 139 residential building permits were issued, an increase of 12 permits, or 9.45%, from January 2024. The median home price for January 2025 was $233,495, marking a 3.78% rise from the previous year. Mortgage rates remained relatively high at 6.875%, though this represents a 1.79% decrease from the rates observed at the same time last year.
Combined residential and commercial building activity in 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, is 712% lower, representing a decrease of $7.2 million. While residential building activity saw an increase of $23.9 million, commercial building activity dropped by $31.7 million compared to the same period last year. Notably, no large commercial projects were permitted during this time.
As of January 2025, oil prices are at $72.53 per barrel, showing a 7.25% decrease compared to the same time last vear. In contrast, natural gas prices have surged to $4.20, marking a significant increase of 147.06%. The oil rig count has nearly doubled from December 2024 to January 2025, reaching a total of 13 rigs. In agricultural markets, wheat prices have risen 7.06%, reaching $6.52 per bushel, while corn prices have climbed 15.94% to $5.02 per bushel. Cotton prices, however, have fallen by 19.56%. Additionally, fat cattle prices have risen by 11.54%, which has contributed to a 25.37% increase in milk prices. Winter moisture is still crucial for preparing the soil for the upcoming planting season.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 248.09 | $ 270.88 | $ 285.97 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 12,450,488 | $ 7,890,156 | $ 10,326,285 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 20,340,645 | $ 7,890,156 | $ 19,066,946 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,049 | 846 | 871 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,687 | 1,474 | 1,516 |
| Airline Boardings | 40,046 | 50,878 | 36,915 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 704,443 | $ 1,008,366 | $ 1,020,330 |
| Population | 263,648 | 263,648 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 174,849 | 174,849 | 171,795 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.00 | % 3.00 | % 3.40 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 169,532 | 169,532 | 166,006 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 163,400 | 163,400 | 160,200 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,024.00 | $ 1,026.00 |
| Gas | 78,955 | 78,697 | 78,508 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.875 | % 7.000 | % 7.000 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 94,912,457 | $ 52,154,858 | $ 102,194,632 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 94,912,457 | $ 1,053,739,936 | $ 102,194,632 |
| Residential Starts | 139 | 111 | 127 |
| Year To Date Starts | 139 | 1,592 | 127 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 233,495 | $ 232,500 | $ 225,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 13 | 7 | 12 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 72.53 | $ 78.89 | $ 78.20 |
| Natural Gas | $ 4.20 | $ 4.31 | $ 1.70 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.52 | $ 6.39 | $ 6.09 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 203.00 | $ 200.00 | $ 182.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 5.02 | $ 4.79 | $ 4.33 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 63.39 | $ 64.96 | $ 78.80 |
| Milk | $ 20.31 | $ 20.05 | $ 16.20 |
Heads up, it’s time for the legal spiel!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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