October 2026
Lubbock's economy continues to expand with strong growth in retail sales and tourism, despite slow sales of new and used vehicles.
Construction is slowing, wages are up, and employment remains steady in the Lubbock market. Continued pressure from gas and diesel prices is pushing inflation higher, which could affect economic growth through increased costs of goods and possible interest rate increases.
YTD retail sales are up 8%, while September 2026 sales also increased 8% compared with September 2025. New vehicle sales decreased by 15% from this time last year and used vehicle sales declined slightly.
Hotel and motel tax collections increased 17% in September 2026 compared with September 2025, driven in part by three Texas Tech home football games during the month.
Employment numbers in Lubbock remained flat compared with September 2025. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.70%, while wages rose 9% over the same period.
30-year mortgage rates have climbed to 7.5%, continuing to weigh heavily on residential permitting activity, which is down 16% from the same period last year. Median home prices declined 20% compared with the same last year.
Residential building activity, including multifamily and apartment projects, is down 25% year over year, while single-family activity is down 13%.
Total building activity is down $49 million, or 6%, compared with last year. Commercial building activity is up $89 million, or 33%, while residential activity is down $138 million, or 25%.
YTD energy markets saw an increase, with oil prices going up 62% while natural gas prices increased 7%. The September 2026 oil rig count rose to 14, compared with 10 rigs in September 2025.
Agricultural commodity prices were mixed, with cotton and wheat prices increasing 26% and 35%, respectively, while milk prices declined 11%. Recent rains and cooler temperatures have benefited the ag sector as cotton harvesting begins. Good weather remains important for the harvest, though rain is always welcome. In 2025, estimated cotton production across 42 counties totaled 2.5 million bales. Lynn, Floyd, Lubbock, Hale, and Dawson were the top five producing counties.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 291.29 | $ 265.08 | $ 252.66 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 9,715,440 | $ 9,443,486 | $ 8,992,841 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 96,798,819 | $ 87,083,379 | $ 90,015,389 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 950 | 1,129 | 1,114 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 2,001 | 1,948 | 2,016 |
| Airline Boardings | 54,203 | 50,076 | 50,541 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 1,003,882 | $ 843,167 | $ 855,077 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 272,086 |
| Employment - CLF | 188,237 | 188,118 | 187,755 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.70 | % 3.90 | % 3.70 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 181,273 | 180,704 | 180,816 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 175,700 | 176,400 | 174,700 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,143.00 | $ 1,143.00 | $ 1,044.00 |
| Gas | 79,088 | 79,364 | 78,531 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 7.500 | % 7.125 | % 6.000 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 56,527,675 | $ 88,608,758 | $ 109,683,221 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 781,297,381 | $ 724,769,706 | $ 831,052,479 |
| Residential Starts | 155 | 132 | 184 |
| Year To Date Starts | 1,178 | 1,023 | 1,254 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 244,990 | $ 243,000 | $ 240,705 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 94.86 | $ 104.71 | $ 58.41 |
| Natural Gas | $ 3.20 | $ 2.93 | $ 2.99 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.49 | $ 6.62 | $ 4.81 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 220.50 | $ 223.45 | $ 241.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.81 | $ 5.41 | $ 4.01 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 78.26 | $ 76.69 | $ 62.34 |
| Milk | $ 15.05 | $ 16.25 | $ 17.00 |
Prepare for the majestic dance of disclaimers!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2026 Economic Analysis
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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