April 2026
Lubbock's economy remained steady throughout the first quarter, supported by strong retail sales, increased tourism spending, and higher commercial building permits.
Mixed signals in commodities and oil could strain individuals' budgets overall. Inflation may tick up. Tax refunds are beginning to flow through the economy and should help individuals over the next few months.
YTD retail sales are up 6%, and March 2026 sales rose 15% compared with March 2025. New vehicle sales declined 12%, while used vehicle sales increased 5%.
Tourism indicators were mixed in March 2026: airline boardings fell 2%, while hotel-motel tax collections rose 29%, supported by more sports events in town.
Updated employment data from the state has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown. In the absence of official figures- and amid ongoing ICE-related concerns-the job market may be weaker than current indicators suggest.
Mortgage rates are at 6%, residential permits remain below prior-year levels, and home prices show a modest decline. Total residential activity declined by $20 million, or 11%, from last year, while MTD sales showed a small increase of $5 million, or 9%. Single-family residential continues to struggle as interest rates remain elevated, though permits increased slightly by $5 million, or 4%.
Commercial building activity was a bright spot in the first quarter, up $76 million, or 110%. Growth was driven primarily by two larger projects: the West Lubbock Pump Station valued at $24 million and the new United Supermarkets Wolfforth location at $40 million. Smaller projects make up the remaining difference.
YTD energy markets are mixed: oil prices are up 49%, while natural gas prices are down 20%.
Cotton prices are up 17%, and cattle prices are up 20%. Heading into spring planting, we are dependent on moisture to get agricultural production started. Most agricultural commodities are up in price.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 267.27 | $ 282.23 | $ 253.70 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 8,209,943 | $ 7,736,140 | $ 7,123,733 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 37,104,074 | $ 28,894,132 | $ 35,088,785 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 852 | 821 | 971 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 2,360 | 1,843 | 2,255 |
| Airline Boardings | 46,001 | 41,963 | 47,039 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 765,833 | $ 606,842 | $ 593,953 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 0 | 188,488 | 187,175 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 0.00 | % 3.70 | % 3.30 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 0 | 181,472 | 180,953 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 0 | 175,900 | 174,900 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,077.00 | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 |
| Gas | 80,035 | 79,517 | 79,327 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.125 | % 6.000 | % 6.625 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 127,081,025 | $ 74,348,003 | $ 74,527,695 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 303,578,642 | $ 176,497,617 | $ 234,396,291 |
| Residential Starts | 126 | 155 | 168 |
| Year To Date Starts | 411 | 285 | 448 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 234,000 | $ 231,000 | $ 235,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 93.60 | $ 94.00 | $ 62.79 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.61 | $ 3.17 | $ 3.25 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 5.84 | $ 5.98 | $ 5.55 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 248.00 | $ 235.00 | $ 206.40 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.44 | $ 4.50 | $ 4.81 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 73.11 | $ 66.82 | $ 62.35 |
| Milk | $ 16.98 | $ 16.18 | $ 17.75 |
Prepare for the majestic dance of disclaimers!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2026 Economic Analysis
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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