March 2026
Lubbock's economy experienced modest growth over the first few months, with retail sales above last year's levels.
Vehicle sales are declining in both the new and used markets. Energy prices have increased due to the war in Iran and will likely influence commodity and consumer prices. Inflation may inch up.
YTD retail sales are up 3%, and February 2026 sales rose 1% compared with February 2025. New vehicle sales declined 16%, while used vehicle sales fell 1%.
Tourism indicators were mixed in February 2026: airline boardings rose 5%, while hotel-motel tax collections fell 9%.
Updated employment data from the state has been delayed due to the federal government shutdown. In the absence of official figures-and amid ongoing ICE-related concerns-the job market may be weaker than current indicators suggest.
Mortgage rates are at 6%, and home prices show a modest decline of 2%. Total residential activity, including multifamily sales, is down 10% from last year. MTD sales are down 5%, and interest rates remain a factor limiting consistent growth in residential activity.
Commercial building activity is up 58% from last year, but the dollar amount for most projects in this category is smaller. There is no major project overall, just smaller building activity. The primary driver in commercial building activity is the West Lubbock pump station, valued at $24 million.
YTD energy markets are mixed: oil prices are up 39%, while natural gas prices are down 21%.
We are dependent on moisture to get agricultural production started for spring planting. Most agricultural commodities are up in price.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 279.12 | $ 245.36 | $ 290.00 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 7,736,140 | $ 11,844,895 | $ 7,624,408 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 28,894,132 | $ 21,157,992 | $ 27,965,052 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 821 | 1,102 | 982 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,843 | 1,757 | 1,868 |
| Airline Boardings | 41,963 | 37,269 | 40,030 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 606,842 | $ 802,515 | $ 663,575 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 263,648 |
| Employment - CLF | 0 | 0 | 188,450 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 0.00 | % 0.00 | % 3.70 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 0 | 0 | 181,445 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 0 | 0 | 174,900 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 | $ 1,044.00 |
| Gas | 79,517 | 79,408 | 79,167 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.000 | % 5.875 | % 6.875 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 74,348,003 | $ 102,149,614 | $ 64,956,139 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 176,497,617 | $ 102,149,614 | $ 159,868,596 |
| Residential Starts | 155 | 130 | 141 |
| Year To Date Starts | 285 | 130 | 280 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 231,000 | $ 227,000 | $ 235,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 94.00 | $ 62.32 | $ 67.61 |
| Natural Gas | $ 3.17 | $ 3.03 | $ 3.99 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 5.98 | $ 5.42 | $ 5.79 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 235.00 | $ 243.00 | $ 199.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.50 | $ 4.30 | $ 4.43 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 66.82 | $ 61.04 | $ 63.32 |
| Milk | $ 16.18 | $ 15.06 | $ 18.45 |
Prepare for the majestic dance of disclaimers!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2026 Economic Analysis
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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