September 2026
Drought has been a persistent issue this summer and is expected to affect overall cotton crop yields going into harvest.
Lubbock's economy continues to show mixed signs, with strong retail sales growth offset by slowing vehicle sales and tourism activity that is flat compared with last year. Building activity remains slow in both residential and commercial construction, though commercial projects have driven the modest increase in overall building numbers. Inflation tied to higher oil prices, along with elevated interest rates, could create additional concerns for economic growth.
With 30-year mortgage rates climbing to 7.125%, higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on buyers and contribute to the slowdown in single-family residential activity.
Residential construction activity, including multifamily and apartment projects, continues to lag last year's pace, down 23% year over year. Single-family activity is also down 8%.
YTD building activity, including commercial construction, is running slightly ahead of last year, with a modest 1% overall increase. Commercial activity is up $116 million, offsetting a $112 million decline in residential activity and resulting in modest net growth.
Commercial construction has helped keep overall building activity ahead in 2026, with commercial permitting up 50% from last year. Projects permitted this month include the new Lubbock Country Club at $29 million, several garden offices at 114th & Elkhart totaling $1.25 million, the UPS expansion at $1.25 million, and Paradise Office Park at $950,000.
YTD energy markets moved in different directions, with oil prices going up 62% while natural gas prices declined 6%. The August 2026 oil rig count reached 14, marking a notable increase from 8 rigs in August 2025.
The Texas High Plains cotton crop has battled extreme heat and limited rainfall this season, with conditions varying widely by location and access to irrigation. Dryland cotton has suffered the greatest losses. While recent raintall brought welcome relief to portions of the region, the moisture likely came too late to significantly improve yield prospects for much of the dryland crop.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | $ 265.08 | $ 267.13 | $ 288.49 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 9,443,486 | $ 11,096,151 | $ 9,168,664 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 87,083,379 | $ 77,639,893 | $ 81,022,548 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,129 | 1,319 | 1,199 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,948 | 2,210 | 2,431 |
| Airline Boardings | 50,076 | 52,356 | 50,304 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 843,167 | $ 1,122,106 | $ 846,646 |
| Population | 272,086 | 272,086 | 272,086 |
| Employment - CLF | 188,223 | 187,964 | 187,358 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.90 | % 4.30 | % 3.90 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 180,799 | 179,801 | 180,032 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 176,300 | 175,800 | 174,600 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,143.00 | $ 1,143.00 | $ 1,044.00 |
| Gas | 79,364 | 79,782 | 78,554 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 7.125 | % 6.625 | % 6.000 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 88,608,758 | $ 54,372,975 | $ 72,196,902 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 724,769,706 | $ 636,160,949 | $ 721,369,258 |
| Residential Starts | 132 | 104 | 91 |
| Year To Date Starts | 1,023 | 891 | 1,070 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 243,000 | $ 243,000 | $ 288,388 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 104.71 | $ 81.01 | $ 64.56 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.93 | $ 2.72 | $ 3.12 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.62 | $ 6.10 | $ 5.01 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 223.45 | $ 232.00 | $ 237.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 5.41 | $ 4.69 | $ 4.29 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 76.69 | $ 80.37 | $ 63.03 |
| Milk | $ 16.25 | $ 16.59 | $ 17.60 |
Prepare for the majestic dance of disclaimers!
This document was prepared by Lubbock National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Lubbock, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2026 Economic Analysis
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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